2017 NFL Playoffs divisional picks Packers upset Cowboys Chiefs dump Steelers

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My plan is to carry over a little into the divisional round. Unfortunately, I love all these lines after hating all the lines last weekend, so we'll see how that works out. This weekend is different than Wild Card Weekend because seven of the eight remaining teams are good, whereas maybe half of the teams playing last weekend were good. Actually, Seattle is probably good. Green Bay and Pittsburgh are definitely good. The Giants are ... good? The Raiders, , Dolphins and Lions? No thanks. Not good, and not nece sarily their fault, because ... On to the picks, and don't forget to check out all . Saturday, Jan. 14 No. 3 Seattle (10-5-1) at No. 2 Atlanta (11-5) TV: 4:35 p.m. ET (Fox) Line: -5 This is pretty great matchup for the , considering the quality of opponent we expect in the divisional round. That's not to say Atlanta isn't good, because the Falcons are very good. Except they rank 29th in rush defense according to Football Outsiders, which opens up an opportunity for to continue his strong postseason. Rawls ripped off a 161-yard day against the Lions last Saturday, eclipsing the Seahawks' single-game postseason record. He runs like a souped-up version of Sonic the Hedgehog, a delightfully violent and spastic approach that is Marshawn Lynch-lite. The question Thurman Thomas Jersey heading into Atlanta is whether Seattle's offensive line magically flipped a switch or if the Lions were overwhelmed. I lean a little bit more toward the latter. And, of course, there's a HUGE gap between what the Falcons and Lions can do on offense. Detroit was on the road with a banged-up . Atlanta is playing at home with a fully rested -- and . The diversity of weapons for Atlanta is substantially greater; and would immediately start at running back for Detroit (no offense, ). The Seahawks have played well in the Georgia Dome, though Seattle is simply a better team at home. So is Atlanta, although it's not as noticeable. Ryan threw for 335 yards the last time Jamison Crowder Jersey these two teams met ( ), and that was with patrolling Seattle's secondary. Atlanta wins by a score. The pick: Falcons 31, Seahawks 24No. 4 Houston (9-7) at No. 1 New England (14-2) TV: 8:15 p.m. ET (CBS) Line: -16 The good news: This game is on Saturday night, so if you need to get out of the house to do something fun, you may only mi s four or five touchdowns. The better news: You can and watch live on your phone while you're out having that fun. Look, there's probably some way to sell this as a game Houston can keep close. The Texans' defense looked good against the Raiders, and when , and are on the same field next season, they're going to be terrifying. But there's no way Houston keeps this close. The Patriots understand they are three wins away from hoisting a Super Bowl trophy if they take care of busine s. They will take care of busine s. The line becomes interesting, though, because 15 points is way too many for a divisional game. It's . There have been only six instances in the past 10 years of a team favored by 10 or more points in this round. Year Team Opp Spread Score Won/Covered 2014 @SEA CAR -11.5 31-17 Y/Y 2011 @NE DEN -13.5 45-10 Y/Y 2010 @CHI SEA -10 35-24 Y/Y 2008 @CAR ARI -10 13-33 N/N 2007 @IND SD -11 24-28 N/N 2007 @NE JAX -13.5 31-20 Y/N These games are kind of interesting because three instances where the heavily favored team didn't cover featured: The 2007 Patriots beating a good Jaguars team by 11 points but not covering an absurdly inflated spread.The 2007 Colts losing straight up at home to the Chargers in a game where tore his ACL (and then played the next week).The 2008 Panthers all-time meltdown, when Jake Delhomme threw five picks and caught six pa ses for 188 yards as the Cardinals stomped Carolina 33-13. The three more recent games, in which the heavily favored team featured: The 2014 Panthers losing in Seattle by double digits after a pick-six off flipped the spread late.The 2011 Patriots absolutely destroying and the miraculous 2011 Broncos 45-10.The 2010 Bears and hanging 21 first-half points on Seattle before put up 21 fourth-quarter points to make this game look closer than it was.Before the games on this list, the previous five double-digit divisional-round faves covered. We've seen decent and even good quarterbacks fail to cover big spreads, but we almost never see a horrible quarterback cover a huge spread against a great quarterback. This is not a decent or even good quarterback facing Tom Brady. It's much closer to the aforementioned Tebow situation. The pick: Patriots 35, Texans 10 Sunday, Jan. 15No. 3 Pittsburgh (11-5) at No. 2 Kansas City (12-4) TV: 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) Line: -1.5 I covered most of the fascinating aspects of this game, at least from the Andy Reid angle, . Here's the gist of it, though: Reid is really good after the bye, which everyone knows, but that also holds true after the bye in the playoffs. It has happened three times -- in 2002, '03 and '04 -- and Reid's faced off against a really talented offense each time. Josh Allen Jersey He got Michael Vick and the Falcons in 2002 (25.1 points per game, fifth in the NFL), Brett Favre and the in 2003 (27.6 points per game, fourth in the NFL) and Daunte Culpepper, Randy Mo s and the Vikings in 2004 (25.3 points per game, sixth in the NFL). And here's the kicker: Reid's defenses gave up 37 points to those teams. Those three teams averaged a combined 78 points but totaled only 37 in three playoff games. Even though it was a long time ago -- Reid hasn't had a bye in the playoffs since 2004, when Jim Johnson was his defensive coordinator and Sean McDermott (named Bills coach Wednesday) was an a sistant DBs coach -- that succe s after a bye should not be discounted. As explosive as Pittsburgh looked against Miami -- and, man, they looked good with lighting up the defense deep to and racking up rushing yards -- Kansas City is a balanced team capable of advancing.The pick: Chiefs 27, 24 No. 4 Packers (10-6) at No. 1 Dallas (13-3) TV: 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox) Line: -4.5 It stinks that is unlikely to play, because it would be swell to have the Packers at full force for this rematch at Dallas. On Oct. 16, the Cowboys in Green Bay. There was chatter -- as there was all season -- about taking over for , even though the Cowboys were sitting pretty at 4-1. They were about to go into the bye, Romo was supposedly ready and if Dak struggled they might make a switch. Prescott promptly outplayed , completing 18 of 27 pa ses for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers threw the ball 42 times for 294 yards and didn't look very good. The Packers fell to 3-2 and heard rumblings about a lost season. The eventually fell to 4-6, when Rodgers laid down his , and the rest is history. Watching him play in the second half last Sunday, it's hard to imagine the Packers getting run out of this game. Rodgers won his only Super Bowl in AT&T Stadium when Jerry World first opened, Rodger Saffold Jersey and the Packers played well after Nelson went out vs. the Giants.I have concerns about whether the Cowboys can run all over Green Bay again, and Rodgers is going to put up points. I think Dom Capers dials up enough pre sure against the rookie quarterback to influence a couple of mistakes and Green Bay pulls it out late in an incredible game. The pick: Packers 34, Cowboys 31
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